Relation between Chance Discovery and Black Swan Awareness

Researchers have been researching for chance discovery more than 10 years. The aim of chance discovery is discover something, but chance discovery is rather different from data mining. In 2007 Taleb introduced a concept ``Black Swan.’’ Taleb uses this rare black swan metaphor to explain how general persons tend to ignore rare or novel events and the importance of being aware of such rare or novel events. The main concept of Black Swan seems to coincide with that of chance discovery. Thus, in this paper, the author compares a chance with Black Swan and presents the future feather of chance discovery. In addition, the author will discuss how to discover the better chance from the viewpoint of abduction and affordance, and give formalization. DOI: 10.4018/jkss.2013010105 International Journal of Knowledge and Systems Science, 4(1), 62-76, January-March 2013 63 Copyright © 2013, IGI Global. Copying or distributing in print or electronic forms without written permission of IGI Global is prohibited. bad economical situation. Many persons could not predict the changes where financial crises occurred. Thus it is rather difficult to follow trends which are generalized pattern of past events. Actually, those who can predict this type of extraordinary situation can make money. Thus the change of data mining’s research interest is very natural. On the other hand, according to the definition of chance discovery (Ohsawa & McBurney, 2003), chance discovery’s main aim has been to discover rare, hidden, potential or novel event(s) / situation(s) that can be conceived either as a future opportunity or risk. In 2007 Taleb introduced a concept ̀ `Black Swan’’ (Taleb, 2007). Black swans had never seen in Europe, but are native to Australia. Therefore, Europeans believed all swans were white and the sighting of the first black swan might have been an interesting surprise for a few ornithologists. Taleb uses this rare black swan metaphor to explain how usual person tend to ignore rare or novel events and the importance of being aware of such rare or novel events. For the financial crises of 2007 in USA, several analyses have been presented, for instance that by Rajan (2010) and Posner (2010). In fact, several years before the crises, Rajan warned the possibility of the financial crises. However many person ignored his warnings. Posner also shows his successes and failure in analyses before the crises. Thus a few researcher were aware of ̀ `chance1’’ of the financial crises, but since they were not acceptable or rare opinions, accordingly they were ignored. Posner regards such rare or novel situation as ``Black Swan.’’ The main concept of Black Swan seems coincide with that of chance discovery. Thus in Abe (2011) I compared chance with Black Swan and discussed a relationship between chance and Black Swan awareness. In this paper, I compare a chance with Black Swan and present the future feather of chance discovery. For chance discovery I mainly use a framework proposed in Abe (The Role of Abduction in Chance Discovery, 2001; The Role of Abduction in Chance Discovery, 2003; The Role of Abduction in Chance Discovery, 2003; Abduction and Analogy in Chance Discovery, 2003) etc. This framework is based on abduction. I will review the framework in the following section. In the rest of this paper, I will briefly review chance discovery and Black Swan theory, and several viewpoints of unusual economical situation by Rajan and Posner. Then I will discuss how to discover the better chance from the viewpoint of abduction and affordance, and give a formalization. CHANCE DISCOVERY BY ABDUCTION In many papers I have described definition and concept of chance discovery. However, in this paper, for a comparison I brief illustrate chance discovery. In fact, the following definition is rather differs from the original definition in Ohsawa and McBurney (2003) to reflect the recent research interests. A chance is rare, hidden, potential or novel event(s) / situation(s) that can be conceived either as a future opportunity or risk. Then ``chance discovery’’ research is a type of research to establish methods, strategies, theories, and even activities to discover a chance. In addition, it aims at discovering human factors for chance discoveries. Therefore not only researchers in computer science and engineering but also researchers with different expertise such as psychologists, philosophers, economists and sociologists take part in chance discovery research. I formalized the procedure of chance discovery by using abduction and analogical mapping (Abe, The Role of Abduction in Chance Discovery, 2001; Abe, The Role of Abduction in Chance Discovery, 2003; Abe, Abduction and Analogy in Chance Discovery, 2003) etc.). Actually, chance discovery was formalized by Abductive Analogical Reasoning (AAR)(Abe, Abductive Analogical Reasoning, 2000). 13 more pages are available in the full version of this document, which may be purchased using the "Add to Cart" button on the product's webpage: www.igi-global.com/article/relation-between-chancediscovery-black/76331?camid=4v1 This title is available in InfoSci-Journals, InfoSci-Journal Disciplines Computer Science, Security, and Information Technology. Recommend this product to your librarian: www.igi-global.com/e-resources/libraryrecommendation/?id=2